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When the Russian President visited India in the previous decade, the international order was markedly different. The brief visit, limited by the pandemic, focused on discussions on strategic and defense cooperation between the two nations.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Additionally, that era preceded a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious rhetoric and the introduction of heavy import duties.

"In this context, the significance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a defiance of external pressure," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a crucial time. President Putin arrives following dismissing recent peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this engagement is its simple happening," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to something resembling routine global diplomacy."

For India, the risks are even higher. The country faces a difficult international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

The tightrope walk was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a public commentary criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This elicited a sharp rebuke from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership originates from the Soviet period and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. However, in the wake of failed peace efforts, accusations increased, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in US-India ties.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of 'hedging'," explained a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is observing how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is its strategic location. "Beijing continues to be the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an excessively close bond between its adversary and its traditional ally.

This concern has also accelerated India's drive to diversify its military imports, decreasing its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: purchase enough Russian weaponry to keep the partnership alive, but avoid so dependent that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has publicly stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports remains pivotal. While the Indian government has stated to continue buying Russian oil, new sanctions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has moved to boost imports of American oil and gas.

A Russian official admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but said it would continue uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to bypass such measures.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be addressed primarily through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, the nation does not possess the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the war," the analyst said. "Aside from urging negotiations, its capacity to effect change is constrained."

Ultimately, despite the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," guided by national interest in a volatile world.