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A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard question to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the wins have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.