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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "significant repercussions" last August should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering truce talks, the former president finally imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's plan would essentially reward Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the plan effectively weaken that very independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business past, the former president seems to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, as if handing Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a damaged region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious intention to weaken it so it no longer serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in status the presently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv should he later decide to resume the war.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative places no equivalent constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, the plan declares: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of captured areas in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "decisive coordinated military response" in case Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars vary from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his reduced troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

An additional side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable defense against additional invasion – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not